A number of solutions are being implemented to basically ensure sufficient power supply for the coming dry season, although the pressure from rising electricity usage demand is significant.
According to Nguyễn Quốc Trung, deputy director of the National Load Dispatch Centre, 2024 is forecast to see strong growth in electricity demand across the country, especially the North.
It is estimated that the electricity demand will increase by 9.6 per cent this year, the highest since 2018.
In the first months of this year, although the hot season has not yet come, electricity demand has already increased by around 11 per cent.
The National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting predicts that heat will come earlier this year which might weigh on the electricity supply system, especially of the northern region, as overall demand for electricity is rising.
The National Load Dispatch Centre’s latest report showed that the demand for electricity in the North for the peak dry season from April to July might reach 27,481MW, a rise of 17 per cent compared to the same period in 2023.
Meanwhile, the total electricity output, both produced and imported, of the northern power system is estimated to increase by around 10 per cent to 52.3 billion kWh.
With an increasing rate of 10 per cent per year in the electricity demand, the northern region might need a new hydroelectricity plant with an annual capacity of estimated 2,500MW put into operation every year. “This is to say that the electricity supply is under significant pressure,” Trung said.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, in the context of unfavourable hydrological conditions in the first three months of this year, thermal power sources have been raised to meet the load demand.
Power transmission from the southern and central regions to the North has also increased.
The electricity supply for 2024 will basically be guaranteed, the ministry said. However, with hydropower accounting for more than 34 per cent, the northern region might face imbalances in electricity supply and demand, especially if the hydrological situation is affected by climate change or incidents in coal-fired power plants occur.
It is vital to add new power supply sources for the North, according to the ministry.
Solutions
For the coming dry season, the National Load Dispatch Centre has stored water in reservoirs which will be used at times of need, especially at the hottest time in May, June and July.
To date, water storage at reservoirs is estimated to be enough to produce 11 billion kWh, around four billion kWh higher than the same period in 2023.
Of note, the centre has developed scenarios for power generation from diesel oil and fuel oil.
Việt Nam Electricity is also hastening the effort to put LNG-fired power plants into operation.
Checks are being carried out to minimise the risks of incidents in electricity production, transmission and distribution.
Nguyễn Thế Hữu, deputy director of the Electricity Regulatory Authority of Việt Nam, said that balancing electricity supply and demand in peak months of this year’s dry season will be challenging as demand might rise higher than expected.
Electricity companies are actively developing solutions to ensure adequate electricity supply for the coming dry season and the entire year.
The electricity supply will be basically guaranteed if there are no unusual developments, Hữu said.
He stressed that it is also necessary to increase energy savings and adjust the load to reduce the pressure during peak hours.
At a working session on April 20, Prime Minister Phạm Minh Chính asked for efforts to ensure sufficient power supply for production and daily activities under any circumstances.
Chính said that to ensure adequate electricity supply, focus must be placed on every stage from production, loading, distribution, usage and price.
Accordingly, it is necessary to effectively operate all power plants, diversify generation sources and speed up the implementation of major power projects, including the 500kV Quảng Trạch-Phố Nội Project to bring electricity from the central and southern regions to the North.
The 500kW Quảng Trạch – Phố Nối transmission project is expected to be completed this June.
He also asked relevant businesses to ensure adequate supply of gas, oil and coal for electricity generation.
Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyễn Sinh Nhật Tân said at the ministry’s quarterly conference that with a combination of solutions, power shortages are not expected to occur in 2024 and the following years.
The northern region faced serious electricity shortage in late May and early June 2023, resulting in rotating power outage which significantly affected production and daily activities. An estimation by the World Bank showed that the electricity shortage last year caused damage of around $1.4 billion, equivalent to 0.3 per cent of the country’s gross domestic product.