In order to ensure electricity for economic development and diversification of power supply sources, Vietnam can develop power plants using coal, oil, gas, hydropower, nuclear energy and renewable energies. Among the above mentioned power sources, nuclear power is one of alternatives, which is most paid attention and at the same time controversial.
Our viewpoint is that if the role of nuclear power is properly evaluated, it will have very good development perspectives in Vietnam. However, there are also big challenges which need to be foreseen in order to prepare solid backgrounds for development of nuclear power industry in Vietnam. The following are our thoughts and points of view on the above two issues and apprehensions
1. Development perspectives
Good timing
World nuclear power industry has development history of 50 years, experiencing raise and fall. In the end of 70th decade, nuclear power industry in the world achieved the most brilliant development. However, it met big challenges and slowed down development speed after accidents of Three Mile Island, United States in 1979 and especially the Chernobyl disaster (in the Former Soviet Union) in 1986. The public faith is declined and many countries reconsidered their nuclear power development plans. The management policies are more tightened making increase of power production cost, governments have to spend money to rescue nuclear power industry from failure. Even nuclear power becomes sneered as false, hide and waste of people money.
However, the nuclear power development prospect has returned from the beginning of 21st century. So far, in the world, there are 440 reactors in operation and 31 reactors under construction (as of 2007) and many reactors are in construction plans. The facts indicate that recent tendency of nuclear power returning is clear in many countries in the world. The political, technological, economic and environmental conditions are also advantageous for development of nuclear power in Vietnam.
Huge need at low price
In two coming decades, Vietnam anticipated to increase 7-8 times of present power supply resources for ensuring electricity demand of the economy. This means over 80 000 MW of new power will be developed with investment of more than hundreds billion US dollars. With such huge investment capital requirement, seeking power sources to ensure power supply stably at cheap costs is the vital thing for rapidly grown economy of Vietnam.
Cost of nuclear power is cheaper in comparison with other power plants which use coal, oil or gas as fuels. Many studies on electricity production costs which were carried out in France, Finland, United States, Japan come to conclusion that the electricity cost of nuclear power plant is cheaper than those using gas, coal or oil by 10-20%, depending on the construction, operation conditions, including dismantlement cost, insurance costs and reserved cost for treatment of radioactive wastes in the future. In the context of high increasing prices of coal, gas and oil, the nuclear power become more competitive and one of economic options.
Reliability and certainty of fuel supply
Nuclear power plant requires high initial investment cost (accounting for three fourths of the production cost) but operation cost is low. When nuclear power plant has completed construction and been put into operation, the main fuel assemblies (usually the uranium) can be used in the reactor for some years. The price of this fuel is relatively stable. Even though uranium fuel price has been increased rapidly in 2007, it still doesn’t affect on the production cost of existing nuclear power plants. Furthermore, according to the investigation data, the uranium resource is enough for nuclear power industry for the long time. If including mixture MOX (Uranium-Plutonium oxide) and development of rapid neutron reactors, it will bring opportunity of using Thorium for thousand years. Therefore, this ensures secure and stable fuel supply in future. The prices of coal, oil and gas are difficult to certainly forecast while electricity industry development plans shall be made for time of 30-40 years in future.
The uranium resources are evenly distributed in the countries with various economical systems such as Australia, Canada, South Africa, Kazakhstan, Brazil, United States, and Russia. This is the factor contributing in stability of future fuel supply, meanwhile, oil and gas resources are concentrated in fewer countries where the competitiveness of Vietnam for the coal, oil, gas supply is limited in comparison with other powerful economies.
Climate change and pollution
The climate change and environmental pollution which are paid attention in the world also play important role in increase of advantages of nuclear power. The nuclear power plants are usually used for covering base load, not emitting CO2 gas which is the main reason of global climate change. If environmental tax and limitation of pollution resources are applied for coal, oil, gas fired power plants, nuclear power plants will have advantageous position as a green industry.
2. Big challenges
Huge investment capital requirement
Even though design was simplified and standardized in order to reduce construction, operation and maintenance costs, nuclear power plants still require huge investment and long time of construction with advanced and sophisticated technologies which Vietnam is not able to manage yet. With investment capital of over US$ 2 billions for one unit of 1000 MW, the good management of investment preparation, mastering construction techniques, manpower training for safe operation management are big challenges in order to have power generation resource supplying save, stable and cheap electricity for economic development of the country in future.
Experience of other countries in construction and operation of nuclear power plants indicate that with poor quality design, delay construction time, safety concern, price of nuclear power plant can be highly increased in comparison with initially anticipated costs. The support and consensus in terms of political aspects and policies will reduce uncertainties, ensuring stability of costs of preparation and construction of nuclear power plant.
Technology choice
Selection of the most suitable technologies for Vietnam, taking natural, economic, social, institutional conditions into account, is also a heavy task for persons who are responsible for laying foundation for nuclear industry because costs of approval, construction, operation, maintenance shall be significantly reduced for following power plants.
Recent tendency indicates that light water reactor with high capacity (including boiling water and pressured water reactors) which are dominant in projects under construction as well as in the planning pipeline. In the world, there are three big equipment suppliers namely Westinghouse-Toshiba (United States), Areva (France)-Mitsubishi (Japan), General Electric-Hitachi, apart from that, Atomstroi export of Russia is also contractor with many project under construction overseas. With returning of nuclear power which creates huge demand of equipment supply and manpower, Vietnam needs to find out right direction in selection of technology in order to get maximal support for technology and manpower. This is very important if taking into account the prospect of construction of series of nuclear power plants in order to reduce costs.
Safety
Construction is one of challenges, however, operation and maintenance of nuclear power plants safely in duration of 40 – 60 years are also concern of the policymakers and investors. A small mistake can lead to serious consequences and damages. Unlikely to other power plants, safety issue includes protection of power plant against external sabotage (risk of radioactive disaster), and protection of nuclear fuel. The support of big countries as well as countries in the region is an important factor for long term security and stability.
Nuclear waste
The radioactive waste is an issue which is not yet solved. After there years of use, the spent fuel assemblies are considered as high radioactive waste. Normally, the burned fuel assemblies are maintained at the power plants (for time up to 50 years, then is transported to fixed place). However, no country has a fixed place for keeping this high radioactive waste for long time (1000 – 100000 years) but only at simulation level (France), of preparation of plan (Yucca mountain, United States). The studies on treatment and management of radioactive wastes are paid attention and invested by many countries in the world and it is expected that scientific and technological progress will have optimal solution in near future.
Public acceptance
The consensus of public is one of factors for success of nuclear power industry development. The experience of other countries (United States, Philippines) indicate that protest of the public may prolong the construction time and increase of construction cost, even leading to failure of investors or nuclear power plant cannot be put into operation.
The recent exhibitions and survey of public opinion in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh cities, Ninh Thuan, Phu Yen provinces indicate that share of people supporting nuclear power is high (90% consider nuclear power is necessary, 47.7% consider nuclear power is useful and safe, only 4.6% consider nuclear power is dangerous). However, this support is being reduced because lack of information. The nuclear power industry needs to prove to the public that nuclear power is cheap, less polluted, safe, creating jobs and increasing income for locality then it will get high support.
3. Works have been being performed in Vietnam
Preparation for development of nuclear power in Vietnam has been carried out from 90th decade. However, because of economic, political conditions are not yet favorable; study was only at level of general overview research. From 2002, preparation works were intensively performed when the Prime Minister directed on preparation of pre-feasibility study report. The pre-feasibility report on construction of the first nuclear power plant in Vietnam was prepared by Institute of Energy (Electricity of Vietnam Group) in coordination with some other organizations. This report was completed and submitted to the Prime Minister in August 2005.
At the end of April 2008, Institute of Energy was entrusted by Ministry of Industry and Trade and Electricity of Vietnam Group for preparing Investment Report of construction of nuclear power plants in the sites of Phuoc Dinh and Vinh Hai, Ninh Thuan province. At each site, there are anticipated to develop two units, with capacity of 1000MW each. The anticipated operation time is in 2020.
Institute of Energy is now also carrying out preparation of two site detailed planning reports in order to soon submit to the Ministry of Industry and Trade for approving the sites, aiming to preparing favourable and necessary conditions for construction of nuclear power plant. Apart from that, in order to develop many nuclear power plants in future, finding new sites is very necessary, therefore, planning of the potential sites is being studied by Institute of Energy and the implementation plan will be prepared soon.
4. Conclusion remarks
Construction and putting into operation of the nuclear power plant as well as development of nuclear power industry in Vietnam depends on many factors, of which one more important issue is radioactive waste management, keeping production cost low and stable, and to convince people that nuclear power is very safe. Even though there are many big challenges, the common feeling in Vietnam is optimistic and believing in future of this new industry. The starting is very important for success because it makes us more confident about our energy perspectives but if it is failed or incident occurs it will make more difficulty for development of nuclear power industry in future.